Points Breakdown After Phoenix!!
11/17/9
DaleReynolds24

 It all comes down to this. One more race. Homestead. The name of the track is synonymous with one thing; The End. After this race, there won’t be a single competitive lap turned for a Sprint COT Series until the 2010 Budweiser Shootout. Simply put, this is it.

For those that tried and failed during the course of the 2009 season, there is no shame to have fought and gotten your a*s kicked. But there is shame in not fighting at all. For those who tried and have succeeded in 2009, your goals and your jobs were completed. For those who are in the title hunt all year, one more goal still eludes you. You have to wait until after Homestead until you find out if that one goal will either be accomplished, or if it will slip away.

Coming into Homestead, a lot of calculators are being worn down. Mostly for the points-wise. People are crunching numbers for every scenario that could happen this Saturday at Homestead. What if this? What if that? We’re going to break down the numbers right here so that we can save you the headache!

Here’s the explanation: 195 is the magical number. The most points any one racer can gain on another in one race is 195. So knowing that, looking at the points after Phoenix, the Top 3 in the standings are within the 195 mark: DaleReynolds24, Kelley1968 and Mwils1. xCHUCK1979x was ever so close, but is a painstaking 196 points out and is out of contention! OUCH!

Situation Number 1: Kelley Dominates Homestead!

In this scenario, Kelley goes on and he wins the race at Homestead and leads the most laps. That gives him 195 points and Kelley is 103 points behind. In order for Kelley to take the points lead in this scenario, he cannot see Dale gain more than 92 points. 92 points is a 23rd place finish with no bonus points, or a 24th or 25th with 5 bonus points. If Dale does not accomplish this feat, Kelley walks away with the 2009 Sprint Cup championship.

Situation Number 2: Mwils Comes From Behind!

In this particular scenario, Mwils goes on and dominates the Homestead race and leads the most laps. That gives him 195 points. He is 134 points behind Dale and is ALSO 31 points behind Kelley. For everything to work Mwils’s way, Dale cannot gain more than 61 points (34th with no bonus, 35th with 5 bonus points), while Kelley doesn’t gain more than 164 points (3rd with no bonus points, 4th with 5 bonus points). If Dale finishes 36th and Kelley finishes 5th, Mwils will walk out of Homestead with the 2009 Sprint Cup Championship.

 

Situation Number 3: Dale No-Shows Homestead

In this scenario, Dale does not even show up to Homestead. He will not get any points at all. In this case, Kelley is 103 points behind and Mwils is 134 behind. Kelley, in order to take the title, needs the 103 points (20th with no bonus, 21st with 5 bonus, or 22nd or 23rd with 10 bonus). Mwils needs to gain his 134 on Dale as well (10th with no bonus points, 11th with 5 bonus, or 11th or 12th with 10 bonus).

Situation Number 4: Dale Clinches at Start

This is the scenario that Dale hopes for. This is the easiest scenario for Dale to clinch the championship. Dale needs 92 points no matter what anyone else does to clinch. 92 points is a 23rd place finish. Well if only 23 racers start the race at Homestead, Dale clinches his title by simply taking the green flag at Homestead. If Dale were to finish last of the 23 starters and Kelley dominates the race, Dale would be the champion by 2 whole points.
 

Still Racing For Prize Slots !!

Now let’s shift the focus away from the title contenders now. Let’s do a comparison on those that are aiming for a Top 5 points finish! Excluding the 3 championship contenders, we will start with 4th place xCHUCK1979x. Anyone within the magical 195 of 5th place xHARVICK29x is eligible for a Top 5 points finish. These people are

xCHUCKx (+56), xHARVICK29x (+9), TheGift (-9),
Scoutchuck (-62), Kapalua (-116), IPC BILLYTHEKID (-147),
and Walt Hamrick (-149).

Knowing that, here is the best and worstpossible places that ALL chasers, can finish in the 2009 Sprint Cup season, using  the 195 points benchmark.

DaleReynolds24 – Best: 1st / Worst: 3rd
Kelley1968 – Best: 1st / Worst: 6th
Mwils1 – Best: 1st / Worst: 7th
xCHUCK1979x – Best: 2nd / Worst: 10th
xHARVICK29x – Best: 2nd / Worst: 10th
TheGift3399 – Best: 2nd / Worst: 10th
Scoutchuck – Best: 3rd / Worst: 11th
Kapalua2483 – Best: 4th / Worst: 12th
IPC BILLYTHEKID – Best: 4th / Worst: 12th
Walt Hamrick - Best: 4th / Worst: 12th
Dart88 – Best: 7th / Worst: 12th
ABBOTTTAZZ – Best: 8th / Worst: 12th
Purity52 – Best: 13th / Worst: 13th
TripleX – Best: 14th / Worst: 14th

WHO WOULDA THUNK IT !!! 2009 has most definitely had it’s share of major surprises. Who would have thought that CHUCK would still be searching for this first career win? Even with an impressive 5 wins last season, who would have thought that Dale would go on and DOUBLE that total in 2009? Who would have thought that iJeremy wouldn’t be giving any kind of raucous speech at the end of the season? And what about the 2 time defending champ Abbbotttazz? Not even in the Top 10 in the standings?? Yes 2009 is a wacky year. To go with it, here’s some cold-hard facts that you probably don’t know about the 2009 Sprint Cup season.

NOTE: Stats are due to change with one race still to go

• There have been 76 different lap leaders in 2009
• Black Puffin is the highest driver in the current standings at 32nd to have not won any Gamer Points in 2009.
• There have only been 10 different winners in 2009. 6 are in the chase, 2 are not and 2 were kicked out. Of the 6 that are in the chase, they equate for a total of 25 wins. Dale Reynolds Racing alone is responsible for 18 of those 25 wins.
• ABBOTTTAZZ is the lowest driver in the standings (12th) to have double-digit Top 5 and Top 10 finishes in 2009. Mwils is the highest driver in the standings (3rd) to have only single-digit Top 5 finishes in 2009, and Kapalua is the highest driver in the standings (9th) to have single-digit Top 10 finishes in 2009.
• xHARVICK29x is the only ACTIVE driver to have not won in 2009 but won in 2008.
• Dart88 is the only chaser to not have a Top 5 finish in 2009.
• IPC Coleyounger is the highest driver in the standings (21st) to not have a Top 5 or Top 10 finish in 2009.
• Kelley1968 has 5 wins in 2009. From the first one to the most recent one, it was in a 10 race span, meaning in that span, it was on average 1 of every 2 races.
• DaleReynolds24 has the most consecutive Top 5 finishes in 2009 at 7 races from Atlanta to Richmond. Dale also has the most consecutive Top 10 finishes in 2009 at 14. Ironically this was the first 14 races of the season, ending at Michigan in June
• TripleX has the worst Average Start and Average Finish of any chaser in 2009 with a 20.4 average start and a 18.6 average finish. Compare this to TheGift’s league-best 4.1 average start and Dale’s league-best 5.0 average finish.
• Dale’s 5.0 average finish in 2009 is the ONLY average finish among all drivers in 2009 in the Top 5.


But here’s the REAL statistic. We don’t know how everything is going to play out!

 SO BUCKLE THEM BELTS ONE MORE TIME AND LETS GO RACING, MIAMI STYLE!